How Kerry went from from hot favourites for the All-Ireland to being dumped out of the Championship
The Kerry post mortem is already well under way, but two main factors stand out in why they didn't recapture the Sam Maguire.
The Kerry post-mortem is already well under way.
Nowhere is the fallout more intense when the Sam Maguire isn’t in the locker for the winter than in the Kingdom
How exactly did Kerry go from heavy favourites for the All-Ireland, with Dublin out of the equation, to being dumped out of the Championship by Armagh in what was a huge upset?
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Among the blizzard of nonsense is the bizarre wade in on David Clifford from an element, which implies he should kick them to victory every single day.
Or the over emphasis of areas like the Clifford brothers coming back too early in the year after a long three years with club, county and divisional sides.
Another old favourite is, they took their eye off the ball - with Dublin out.
Most of it is nonsense. There are two primary reasons that stand out above all others.
The first revolves around the four second half goal chances in the game.
Kerry had three and converted one. Armagh got one and nailed it.
If the four chances worked out the exact opposite way they did, that’s a six point swing and the winning and losing of most games - certainly this one.
Four goal chances. Three went with Armagh. One went with Kerry. If one more had gone in Kerry’s favour, it would probably have been enough. given the lead they held on all four occassions.
For Kerry’s first goal chance, Joe O’Connor and Tom O’Sullivan might have made different decisions, but recycled to David Clifford for a point and a healthy 0-11 to 0-7 lead on 40 minutes.
Then on 42 minutes with four points still in it, O’Sullivan poked wide under considerable pressure from Paddy Burns, but it was a major goal chance missed.
Had one of these opportunities hit the net it’s unlikely that even a gritty and never day die Armagh would have closed the gap, which would have been six or seven points.
Up to then, Kerry were in complete control with their shooting a hugely impressive 10 from 12 in the first half, way ahead of Armagh, and their defensive pressure also at a higher level than the underdogs.
When Kerry’s goal did arrive, on 47 minutes, it left the scoreline 1-11 to 0-9, and with it being their third goal chance of the second half, it looked ominous for Armagh, who were being opened up as they chased the game.
But the fourth goal chance of the half fell to Armagh and their number one man marking defender, Barry McCambridge showed great presence of mind to stoop and punch home his second goal in two games.
Shane Ryan has been outstanding over a number of years for Kerry, but he should have caught the high ball he spilled for the McCambridge goal that put just a point in it.
It wasn’t all luck either as Armagh’s Jason Duffy intercepted Ryan’s short kick out - something Conor Turbitt did for Tiernan Kelly’s key goal against Galway - and McCambridge did what so many players don’t. He followed the shot inside and made his own luck.
The goal lifted Armagh psychologically. They went from being held at arm’s length to being right back in the game.
That’s where factor two came into it, one that helped Armagh dominate the final 20 minutes and most of extra-time.
There’s road-tested and there’s running out of road.
Derry looked tired when they met Kerry in the All-Ireland quarter-final and didn’t appear to have the energy to mount a serious fight in the final quarter.
There was none of those lung bursting runs from the back that are key to their game.
Derry were on their third championship game in 15 days. Kerry came in off a fortnight’s break.
So Kerry didn’t get the test they needed, and nothing like what Derry put up to them in the All-Ireland semi-final the year before. The contrast couldn’t have been more marked in the 2023 and 2024 encounters.
Kerry were fresh, but they weren’t fully tested after romping home against Monaghan, Louth and Meath in the All-Ireland group stages.
Armagh, on the other hand, were well road-tested by encounters like the Ulster Final loss to Donegal, the All-Ireland qualifiers against Derry and Galway and the quarter-final win versus Roscommon.
They were also fresh, having enjoyed a two week break to prepare for Kerry and it was just their second game in four weeks.
Armagh were primed to explode,if Kerry gave them a sniff, which they did.
The road tested bit appeared to really kick in for the final 20 minutes plus extra-time.
David Clifford looked to be struggling with cramp late on - although he continued.
In 2021, Clifford was forced out of the Tyrone All-Ireland semi-final defeat before extra-time began.
His fitness concerns at the weekend were almost a metaphor for the idea that Kerry weren’t road tested properly - and their resultant woes.
Armagh’s bench was also key. Jarly Og Burns made a huge impact, with Burns, Ross McQuillan and Oisin O’Neill all hitting big points.
The Kerry bench, bar Cillian Burke didn’t have the same impact they had against Derry.
A for the goal chances, they might have converted them, but then Armagh could point to a Ryan save from Andrew Murnin in the first half.
The All-Ireland group stage draw was something Kerry couldn’t do anything about.
One thing they can alter is their style of play and tactics.
As always, the overriding thing with Kerry is that with their culture and quality of player - particularly with Dublin seemingly on the wane - it only takes small tweaks to get it right.
Less focus on the opposition, which was almost at obsessive levels against a weakened Derry.
A few tactical switches. David Clifford to 11 for spells. Paudie Clifford to wing forward. Sean O’Shea to midfield will come up again. A number six that attacks more. Bring their goalie up into general play more to create overlaps and chances.
Hold more men up for longer spells and trust their defence. Challenge more opposition kickouts.
With three forwards like the aforementioned, Kerry should be dictating the terms of engagement.
Kicking isn’t easy in the modern game, but they still kick better than anyone else.
Right now, they just resemble everyone else.
Their defensive play and structure has improved immeasurably, and it helped them to back to back All-Ireland finals, winning one.
It’s in the locker now, but with three years playing a similar system, expect a few tweaks next year, whoever the manager and coaches are.
None of this lost Kerry the 2024 All-Ireland - it was goal chances and more battle hardened opponents - but some of it might be enough to help them win it back again in 2025.
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