Rhasidat Adeleke semi-final analysis: the big dangers, the contenders and no-hopers
Adeleke has the form to make the podium
Marileidy Paulinho remains favourite to win the women's 400m gold medal despite not appearing at a major tournament in 2024.
Amber Anning, Salwa Eid Naser and Lieke Klaver were the second, third and fourth fastest in the heats but are not expected to get among the medals.
Rather Natalia Kaczmarek and Rhasidat Adeleke are expected to make the podium based on the past race times with Nickisha Pryce down as the most likely, according to the bookies (see bottom) to get among them.
THE 400M CONTENDERS
Marileidy Paulinho (Dominican Rep) - Fastest qualifier from Olympic heats with 49.42. Silver medallist at Tokyo 2020 and gold medallist at 2023 World Championships and 2023 Panam Games over this distance. 27-year-old with a Personal Best of 48.76 set at the 2023 Panam games. World ranked no1 at this distance since May 2023.
Amber Anning (Great Britain) - Second fastest qualifier from Olympic heats with 49.68. Hove-born 23 year-old, part of Arkansas Razorbacks multiple record breaking and brilliant-brilliant relay team but still without a major 'singles' medal. Has raced Adeleke twice and finished behind twice. Personal best of 49.51 posted in May 2024.
Salwa Eid Naser (Bahrain) - Third fastest qualifier from Olympic heats with 49.91. Her gold medal run at the 2019 World Championships, 48.14, is third fastest in 400m history. Suspended in June 2020 for missing drugs tests, she missed Tokyo 2020 and 2022 World Championships. Now 26 years-of-age, 2019 48.14 remains her personal best.
Lieke Klaver (Netherlands) - Fourth fastest qualifier, second to Anning, from Olympic heats with 50.02. Another 'specialist' relay runner, has gold relay medals from the 2023 World Championships and the 2024 Paris Olympics 4x400 mixed relay. Bronze to Adeleke's silver at 2024 Europeans. That 50.02 in the heats was a Personal Best.
Natalia Kaczmarek (Poland) - Fifth fastest qualifier from Olympic heats with 49.98. European Championships 2024 400m champion with a time of 48.98 and beating Adeleke into second. Was also a silver medalist at the 2022 Europeans. Has a personal best of 48.90 set in London at the Diamond League in July 2024.
Nickisha Pryce (Jamaica) - Sixth fastest qualifier from Olympic heats with 50.02. Finished third at 2023 NCAA Championships to Adeleke's second, running her personal best at the time 50.23 and dropped to 49.32 last June in the 2024 NCAA Championships last June. Lowered again with 48.57 in the London Diamond League in July.
RHASIDAT ADELEKE (IRELAND) - Seventh fastest qualifier from Olympic heats with 50.09. First Irish womens athlete to break 50secs for 400m, holder of the Irish 60m, 100m, 200m and 400m outdoor and indoor records, currently on scholarship in Texas. Silver medallist at European Championships, clocking 49.07 which is also her personal best
Stacey-Anne Williams (Jamaica) - Eight fastest in heats, second to Eid Naser, a complete surprise package running a Personal Best of 50.16. A Texas Longhorns teammate and Paris training partner of Adeleke, there are few suggesting she could finish ahead of the Irish girl here. 4x400 relay bronze medalist at Tokyo 2020.
Alexis Holmes (USA) - Finished ninth fastest in the heats with 50.35. A 24 year-old who was seen as an indoor specialist and hadn't been thought of as a particular Olympics contender despite gold medals in the 2023 World Championship 4x400 mixed relay and 2024 World Relay Championships 4x400.
Sada Williams (Barbados) Qualified as third in her heat behind Kaczmarek in 50.45 which was a poor time for her. Bronze at 2022 World Championships, gold at 2022 Commonwealth Games. Now 26 years-of-age, her personal best 49.58 won her a bronze at the World Championships - behind Paulinho and Kaczmarek - in Budapest in 2023.
Aaliyah Butler (USA) - Finished second in the heats to Paulinho with a time of 50.52. Another young American sprinter although, at 20, she is a year older than Kaylyn Brown. Posted something of a surprise finishing second in the US Olympic trials. Her personal best of 49.71 was set at those trials in June 2024.
Roxana Gomes (Cuba) - Finished second in her qualifying heat with 50.38. Competed in the 2016 Olympics as a teenager, posted Personal Best 49.71 at Tokyo 2020. Silver medal at 2023 Central Am & Caribbean Games but didn't make the final of 2023 World Championships following running 51.07 in the semi-final. 25 years-of-age.
Kendall Ellis (USA) - Finished fifth in her heat clocking 51.16 but came through the repechage posting 50.44. Three time NCAA champion mostly regarded as a highly capable relay runner for Team USA picking up gold medals at Tokyo 2020, two World and one Panam Championships. Personal best 49.46 at US Olympic trials last June while running a relay leg.
GOLD MEDAL BETTING
2/3 - Marileidy Paulinho (Dominican Rep) -
7/2 - Nickisha Pryce (Jamaica)
5/1 - Rhasidat Adeleke (Ireland)
18/1 - Natalia Kaczmarek (Poland)
33/1 - Salwa Eid Naser (Bahrain)
60/1 - Amber Anning (UK)
100/1 - Lieke Klaver (Netherlands)
100/1 - Sada Williams (Barbados)
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