Too many fingers in the pie? The geopolitical stakes in Syria
The abrupt collapse of Bashar al-Assad's brutal regime has left a power vacuum, ripe for exploitation by the same regional and global powers that backed rival factions during Syria’s decade-long civil war. James Debono explores the shiftin
Turkey: Neo-Ottoman expansion
The decline of Iranian influence in Syria has been matched by the rise of Erdogan’s Turkey, which, although a NATO member, is a vocal critic of both Israel and the US. Since the Arab Spring, Turkey has sought to assert a hegemonic role reminiscent of the Ottoman era, supporting Islamic movements rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood. Just as Iran employed proxies in the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, Turkey has cultivated its own, notably the Syrian National Army (SNA), and exerts significant influence over the victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Turkey’s involvement in Syria is also driven by hostility toward Kurdish resistance movements, particularly the People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control much of north-eastern Syria. While the Kurds gained international respect for their heroic struggle against ISIS, Turkey views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a banned militant left-wing group within Turkey. Kurdish groups, which distanced themselves from both the Assad regime and Islamist militias, accuse Turkey of complicity with extremist groups. Turkey has launched multiple military operations in northern Syria to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region along its southern border. The future of the Kurds in a post-Assad Syria remains uncertain, largely contingent on the direction of US policy—whether it continues to support Kurdish forces or shifts towards closer alignment with Turkey.
Israel: Scorched earth policy
Israel swiftly targeted weapons stockpiles left by the regime and succeeded in obliterating the Syrian navy. More significantly, Israel has advanced into Syrian territory to establish a buffer zone around the Golan Heights, a region that Israel has illegally occupied since the Six-Day War of 1967.
Israel’s primary interest in Syria is linked to security concerns, particularly regarding the presence of Iranian forces and Hezbollah near its borders. While Israel is emerging victorious in this security battle, decapitating the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, the war in Lebanon has forced Hezbollah to shift its troops from Syria, weakening the Assad regime, which depended on its support.
While Israel welcomed the collapse of a key Iranian ally in Syria, it remains isolated in a hostile region, with enmity rooted in the occupation of Palestine and aggravated by the ongoing genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. Rather than building regional alliances by ceding occupied territories, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems keen on creating new buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria to protect Israel from its adversaries. Though the downfall of Assad may seem advantageous in countering Iran, Israel remains cautious about what might replace the regime it has coexisted with for decades. While formally allied with the Shiite Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas shares ideological common ground with Sunni insurgents in Syria, who are also rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas has even congratulated these groups on their victory.
Iran: Knocked down but not out
Iran has been a steadfast supporter of the Assad regime, providing military and financial backing to ensure its survival. Iran’s involvement in Syria is part of a broader strategy to maintain its influence across the region, particularly by creating a “Shiite Crescent” stretching from Tehran to Beirut. Iran’s military presence, including Quds Force operatives and Hezbollah fighters, was critical in bolstering Assad’s position. However, recent setbacks, including the decapitation of key allies by Israel, have significantly weakened Iran’s influence in the region. After years of investment in Assad’s regime, Iran’s foothold in Syria is now at risk. But Iran may find its way back as a counterweight to Israel, especially if the latter seeks to gain a permanent foothold in Syria. Iran may also try to break its isolation by reaching out to Turkey in a bid to reconcile Sunni and Shiite factions.
Russia: A port in the Mediterranean
Russia’s air force played a critical role in preserving Assad’s regime, particularly during the 2016 battle for Aleppo. The now-defunct Wagner group had also provided backup for the regime. Moscow’s strategic interests include maintaining its Mediterranean naval base in Tartus and projecting influence in the Middle East. The Kremlin has also acted as a power broker, balancing relationships with Iran and Turkey.
However, with resources stretched by the war in Ukraine, Russia was unable to prevent the regime’s collapse. By granting asylum to Assad, Russia may have averted a bloodbath but risks losing the political capital it invested in Syria. Shelter for the deposed leader is likely to diminish Russia’s already waning regional influence. However, in a bid to preserve its strategic foothold, Russia is likely to engage with the new government.
Gulf States: From funding rebellion to reconstruction
Saudi Arabia and the UAE initially backed Sunni-aligned Islamist groups seeking to overthrow Assad, raising concerns that the Syrian revolution’s original calls for democracy would be diverted into a sectarian conflict, escalating into a bloody divide. But they have shifted toward normalisation in recent years. This policy change reflects their desire to counterbalance Iranian influence and stabilise the region. The Gulf states are poised to play a significant role in Syria’s reconstruction, leveraging their wealth to gain political influence.
United States: Waning influence in the region
The US has seen its influence in the region wane, stemming from the disastrous fallout of its 2003 invasion of Iraq and its inability to restrain Israel despite supplying it with weapons. Initially supporting anti-Assad forces, Washington later focused on combating ISIS, relying heavily on Kurdish-led forces. It remains unclear whether the US will maintain its collaboration with Kurdish fighters or pivot toward improved relations with Turkey. The US is also likely to fear further blowback from Islamic militants if Syria follows the same destabilising trajectory as Iraq and Afghanistan.
France: The legacy of a colonial power
As Syria’s former colonial power, France has deep historical ties to the Alawite community, which rose to prominence during the French mandate (1920–1946). France created the Alawite State, fostering loyalty that contributed to the Assad regime’s rise. Although France has opposed Assad’s regime, it has accepted significantly fewer Syrian refugees than Germany.
While Europe’s influence in Syria is waning, France and the EU could encourage inclusivity in a post-Assad Syria. However, the current emphasis on suspending asylum applications reflects the rise of far-right sentiment rather than a genuine assessment of conditions in Syria. It could take years, if not decades, for Syrians to feel safe returning to their homeland.
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