“The US is significant because of its own emissions and finance, and also because of its own diplomatic influence. It’ll have both direct and indirect effects on emission levels around the globe,” he said to the newspaper, reminding that the world can ill-afford to waste any more time in reducing emissions.

While Trump has widely been regarded as an unpredictable actor in the foreign policy space, his record in office and statements on the campaign trail leave no such ambiguity in regards to his approach to climate policy, according to Vihma.

Trump, for example, has falsely claimed that the climate is not warming, greatly understated the pace of sea level rise and summed up his energy policy with the phrase, “drill, baby, drill”. He also demonstrated his disregard and ignorance by viewing that raising the sea level is a way to create more ocean-front property and by courting oil and gas tycoons with tax and regulatory favours, along with what is effectively a carte blanche to operate, in exchange for one billion dollars in campaign donations.

“He hasn’t wavered at all in that regard. Trump is a climate denier and he tries to undo climate policy,” stated Vihma.

Trump, he added, is also determined to roll back the inflation reduction act (IRA), a sprawling piece of legislation that has unlocked hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for green energy, industries and technologies. The act is the single largest investment in climate and emission reductions in the history of the US.

The Democrats’ entire climate agenda has been labelled as the “green new scam” by Trump.

Carbon Brief has estimated that the president-elect effectively promised on the campaign trail to release an additional four billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over the four-year term when compared with the scenario in which he lost the election. The amount is roughly equivalent to the combined annual emissions of Japan and the EU.

Climate activist Bill McKibben warned on the Guardian’s Science Weekly podcast that, under Trump, US liquefied natural gas exports alone could soon produce more greenhouse gas emissions than all economic activity in Europe.

Vihma told Helsingin Sanomat that Trump could also start neutering the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the agency responsibly for monitoring climate action in the US.

Trump is also expected to, for the second time, pull out the US from the Paris Agreement, a landmark agreement on intergovernmental co-operation on the climate crisis and the bedrock of investment in green business and innovation.

The agreement is on the agenda at the Cop-29 starting in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Monday, 11 November. Finland and the EU are entering the world’s most important climate conference with the objective of re-classifying countries that have prospered since their classification as developing countries in the 1990s, such as China and Arab States, to ensure their contribution to climate financing along with more traditional industrial countries.

The US, which is historically the largest contributor of climate-heating emissions, withdrawing from the agreement and refraining from making further emission-reduction commitments – another key objective of Cop-19 – could possibly discourage the likes of China.

“That’ll naturally have an impact on the mood at the conference,” said Vihma to Helsingin Sanomat.

Outi Honkatukia, the director of the climate division at the Ministry of the Environment, reminded the daily newspaper that the political climate and economic conditions have shifted also in Europe, making it less likely that other countries are prepared to make up for the financing shortfall caused by Trump.

“If you’ve followed recent elections in the EU, [it’s clear] that there is no willingness to make up for a shortfall like that.”

The US withdrawal will also complicate the effort to justify emission-reduction targets for other countries.

“Of course there’s a moral-ethical problem for us others. The country that has the world’s second largest emissions won’t be part of an agreement with which we’re trying to keep the 1.5-degree target alive and the planet habitable,” she acknowledged.

British Energy Secretary Ted Miliband told the Observer on Saturday that the UK would lead efforts at Cop-29 to reach the global consensus required to avoid the worst effects of climate breakdown.

Mohammed Chamin, the Dutch vice chairperson of the European Parliament’s delegation to Cop-29, said the EU has to similarly assume a greater role.

“The climate crisis does not wait for ideal conditions to act, and neither can we. After the re-election of Trump, the EU must now take a stronger leadership role, both to sustain momentum and to counterbalance the US stance,” he stated to the Guardian last Wednesday.

Aleksi Teivainen – HT