Parties running neck and neck as budget bounce not enough for Labour to overtake PN

MaltaToday survey | VOTING: PN 46.3%, PL 45.3%, ADPD 4.1%, Others 4.2% • Turnout: 70.6% • TRUST: Robert Abela 43.2%, Bernard Grech 25%, None 31.8% • GOV. PERFORMANCE: 2.7 out of 5

By: maltatoday.com

Nov 17 2024
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Parties running neck and neck

SUMMARY

The Labour Party has experienced a bounce in the polls after the budget but this is not enough to leapfrog the Nationalist Party. The two major parties are practically neck and neck with the PN enjoying a minimal one-point advantage.

The difference between the two parties is well within the survey’s margin of error. A comparison with a MaltaToday survey held in September shows that the PN’s 12,000-vote advantage has whittled down to just 2,600 votes.

The PN enjoys the support of 46.3% of the electorate against Labour’s 45.3%, a one-point lead over the PL on a projected turnout of 70.6%. The survey also shows that a significant 8% of voters are opting for third parties, split equally between ADPD and other political formations.

The MaltaToday survey also confirms the unpopularity of PN leader Bernard Grech, who now trails Robert Abela by 18 points on the trust barometer, up from 16 points in September.

VOTING INTENTIONS: PN leading Labour by 2,600 votes down from 12,000 votes in September

The Nationalist Party is just one point ahead of the Labour Party, MaltaToday’s post budget survey shows.

The results see the PL reducing the PN’s lead from 11,699 votes in September to just 2,647 votes now.

The PN scores 46.3%, a two-point drop since September, while the PL gains 1.5 points and sees its support climb to 45.3% from 43.8%.

The one-point difference between the two main parties falls squarely within the survey’s margin of error, which technically means that either party could be in the lead at the present juncture.

Support for ADPD dropped slightly from 4.5% to 4.1% while that for other parties or independents has increased from 3.5% to 4.2%.

Once again the shift towards the PN is mostly attributable to a higher abstention rate among past Labour voters.

The survey results show that if a general election were to be held now, the turnout would be 70.6% down from 75.7% in September. This suggests that despite the budget hype and the heightened political temperature following the latest scandal involving an ethics breach by two Cabinet ministers, more people have switched off from politics in the past weeks.

The survey was conducted after the budget and coincided with Bernard Grech’s reply to the budget and Robert Abela’s counter reply. It also coincided with political controversy after ministers Clint Camilleri and Clayton Bartolo were found guilty of an ethical breach by the Standards Commissioner. This development may have dampened the budget’s feel good factor.

While the gap between the two main parties is well within the survey’s margin of error, the results strongly indicate that the PN has substantially narrowed, or wiped out, Labour’s 39,000-vote advantage in the 2022 general election.

Compared to the 2022 general election, the survey suggests that the PL has lost a staggering 49,145 votes, which are now mostly parked in the non-voters camp. However, the PN has only lost 7,024 votes while non-voters have increased by a staggering 53,478.

A comparison with vote tallies from the June MEP election shows the PL losing 4,243 votes. In contrast, the PN gains 6,858 votes.

The survey also suggests that support for third parties in a forthcoming general election would rise to over 8%, split between 4.1%, who would vote for ADPD and 4.2% for other parties.

PL losing votes to abstention

One major reason for the PN’s lead is its higher retention rate of 2022 general election voters. While the PL barely retains 69% of its former voters, the PN retains 86% of its 2022 voters.

Significantly, while the PN loses just 3.9% of its 2022 voters to abstention, the PL loses 25.7% of its general election voters to the non-voting camp.

Moreover, Labour’s losses to abstention are topped up by smaller losses to the PN. While the PN loses only 2% of its 2022 voters to Labour, it gains 4.1% of Labour voters from the same general election.

The PN also makes greater inroads than Labour among people who did not vote in the 2022 general election – 11.8% of whom will now vote PN compared to 8.1% who will vote Labour. Nonetheless, these gains are offset by greater PN losses to third parties. While Labour is only losing 1.2% of its 2022 voters to third parties, the PN is losing 7.8% of its general election voters to ADPD and other parties.

PN leads in 4 out of 6 regions

The survey shows the PN has taken the lead in the Northern, North Harbour, Western, and Gozo regions, while the PL still leads by a wide margin in the South-eastern region and in the South Harbour.

The PN's support peaks in the Northern region where the party commands a relative majority of 45.4% and is leading the PL by a staggering 21 points. The party also leads the PL by nearly 10 points in the North Harbour region and by eight points in the Western region.

In Gozo, the only region corresponding to an electoral district, the PN is leading Labour by just one point which suggests that Labour has gained ground since September when the PN carried the district with a nine-point advantage. This suggests that the budget had a positive impact on Gozitans.

Moreover, the survey finds that support for Labour remains rock solid in the South-eastern region, where the party leads the PN by 21 points and the South Harbour region where it leads the PN by 23 points.

ADPD registers its best score in the North Harbour region (4.7%) while other third parties peak in the Northern region at 6.9%. In the Northern region more than a tenth of respondents would vote for a third party if an election is held now.

PN leads among under 50s, post-secondary educated and women

The survey shows the PN leading by two points among 16- to 35-year-olds and by seven points among those aged between 36 and 50. But Labour is leading by nine points among 51- and 65-year-olds. However, the two big parties are running neck and neck among pensioners, where the PN is leading by less than two points.

Abstention peaks among younger voters. The results show that 37.7% of 16- to 35-year-olds and 36.4% of 36- to 50-year-olds will not vote. However, abstention drops to 32.9% among 51- to 65-year-olds and to just 10.6% among pensioners.

The survey also finds the PN making inroads among respondents who did not attend university but followed post-secondary education, a category that leaned towards Labour in the past decade. In this strategic category, where 38.6% intend to abstain, the PN is leading by nearly 10 points, up from five points in September.

The PN’s lead is more solid among the tertiary-educated, where the party commands the support of 42.8%, in contrast to Labour’s abysmal 19.7%. However, in an indication that Labour still enjoys widespread working-class support, the party leads by 13.4 points among those with a secondary level of education. Moreover, among those with a primary level of education – a category mostly composed of older respondents with a low level of education – support for Labour peaks at 56.1%.

The survey also indicates a substantial gender gap with the PN leading the PL by 4.5 points among women while trailing Labour by 2.3 points among men.

TRUST BAROMETER: Abela widens lead over Grech to 18 points

Prime Minister Robert Abela is still significantly more trusted to run the country than Opposition leader Bernard Grech despite the parties running neck and neck.

The MaltaToday Trust Barometer shows that Abela is trusted by 43.2% up 0.6 points since September while Grech’s rating stands at 25% down by 1.6 points. This means that the trust gap has increased from 16 points in September to 18 points now.

The results show that 31.8% trust neither of the two political leaders, up from 30.7%.

While the survey confirms Abela’s strong advantage over Grech, it also suggests that Grech’s poor trust rating is not deterring a sizeable number of voters who trust neither of the two leaders from voting for the Opposition in a forthcoming general election. In fact, 23.7% of current PN voters trust neither leader and surprisingly 5.4% trust Abela more than Grech but would still vote PN . This stands in sharp contrast to Abela’s 98% rating among current Labour voters.

What is definitely bad news for the Nationalists is Grech’s extremely low standing among current non-voters – a strategic category where the PN needs to make inroads to secure victory in the next general election. In this sizeable category, which includes 29% of voters, only 4.4% trust Grech to run the country, while 30.9% trust Abela. This suggests that Labour has more room to grow in this vital category than the PN does.

Abela leads Grech in five out of six regions

Despite Labour trailing the PN in four out of six regions, Abela leads Grech in all regions except the Northern region. However, his lead over Grech ranges from 35.1 points in the South-eastern region and 30 points in the South Harbour, to 14.5 points in the North Harbour region, 10.5 points in the Western region and 8.2 points in Gozo.

While the Prime Minister’s trust rating peaks in the South Harbour region, where he is trusted by a staggering 58% of respondents, Grech’s popularity peaks in the Northern region, where he is trusted by 33.8%.

The highest percentage of voters who trust neither of the two leaders is found in the South-eastern region, where 36.5% trust neither Grech nor Abela to run the country, followed by the Northern region, where 36.2% trust neither leader.

Men trust Abela more than women

While Abela leads Grech among both men and women, the trust gap is considerably higher among men (24.7 points) than among women (12 points). And while only 21.1% of men trust Grech to run the country, his rating increases to 28.7% among women. In contrast, while 45.8% of males trust Abela, his rating drops to 40.7% among women. Men (33.1%) are also more likely to trust neither of the two leaders than women (30.6%).

Abela leads in all age groups

Both leaders are least trusted among 16- to 35-year-olds. However, in this age group, Abela is trusted by 35.4% of voters, while Grech is only trusted by 20%. Despite Grech’s poor trust rating, 29% of young voters will still vote PN.

Grech’s trust rating does not significantly improve with age, rising to just 21.2% among both 36- to 50-year-olds and 51-to 65-year-olds. In contrast Abela’s rating increases to 40.1% among 36-to 50-year-olds and to 48.8% among 51- to 65-year-olds.

Both leaders are significantly more trusted by pensioners, among which Abela is trusted by 49.9% and Grech by 37.3%.

Significantly, the survey also shows Abela leading Grech among both the tertiary and the post-secondary educated, two categories where the PN is in the lead. Among the tertiary educated Abela leads Grech by 4.3 points while among the post-secondary educated, Abela leads Grech by 12.7 points. Abela’s lead increases to 28.1 points among the secondary educated.

Distrust in both leaders peaks among the post-secondary educated (40.3%) and the tertiary educated (38%).

GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE BAROMETER: Abela's administration scores 2.7 out of 5

Despite the Labour Party trailing the Nationalist Party in the polls, the performance of the government led by Robert Abela is still perceived as satisfactory by a majority of respondents.

Respondents were asked to rate the government led by Robert Abela on a scale from 0 (very negative) to 5 (very positive). This resulted in an average score of 2.7, up from 2.6 in September before the budget.

Moreover, 60.3% of respondents gave the government a rating of 3 points or more, while only 39.7% rated the government at 2 points or lower.

Not surprisingly, the government received its lowest score (1.6) among current PN voters and its highest score among current PL voters (3.9). Among the current group of non-voters, the government was rated at 2.6 up from 2.4 in September.

A breakdown by age shows that the government is viewed most favourably by those aged over 65 who give it a rating of 2.9 followed by those aged between 51 and 65 who give it a rating of 2.8. The government is judged most unfavourably by respondents aged under 50 who rate it at 2.5.

Regionally, the government received its highest rating in the country’s South-eastern region (3.1) and its lowest rating in Gozo (2.4).

A breakdown by education shows the government receiving its lowest rating among the tertiary educated (2.4), followed by the post-secondary educated (2.6). Its highest ratings came from the secondary educated (2.8) and those with a primary level of education (3.3).

Women, who gave the government a score of 2.6, were slightly less positive than men, who gave the government an average performance rating of 2.8.