Eamon Dunphy column: England can make most of poor Euros
Players are tired - both physically and mentally. The best players have been defenders, even 41-year-old Pepe was able to leave his mark. That tells me that it's a far from vintage tournament.
England have a great chance of winning the Euros for three reasons. Switzerland. Slovakia. Slovenia.
Those are their last three opponents. If you had to pick three teams at a major tournament to give you a ticket to the semi-finals, you wouldn't believe your luck if you landed all of those.
Actually, I'm wrong, there's a fourth reason. The Netherlands. Now the Dutch have a great history but it's just that. History. This is a plodding team who depend on Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay up front. That says it all.
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England couldn't have picked handier semi-final opponents.
The draw is the overriding reason why England can become champions, though I still make France favourites.
It's not that England have a good team, never mind a great one.
It's not due to the ability of Gareth Southgate as manager.
He looks more and more like what he was - a man who got Middlesbrough relegated.
But I think England will be in the final because they still have outstanding individuals.
Look at their last two games. England were atrocious against both Switzerland and Slovakia.
They survived, though, because of two moments of brilliance from two class acts in Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka.
How many passages of good team play did England show in those games? Very few.
They are not a team at all. A manager always should aim to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts.
Southgate has done the opposite. England, with the players they have, should be much better, but he just picks individuals, not a team.
And his conservatism is a major issue too.
It's never good to be a reactive manager, but that is what Southgate is - witness how he turned to his bench instantly after Switzerland went in front on Saturday.
He makes changes when they are forced on to him.
It was clear against Switzerland that a change was needed at left-back. Southgate turned to Luke Shaw, who hadn't played a game since February.
When he came on to the pitch, it was clear he was in no way fit.
Southgate had the option of using Joe Gomez, who played 17 games at left-back for Liverpool last season, and did well there.
But Shaw is one of the manager's men. Even though he wasn't match fit or, in any way, fit, he turned to Shaw.
He got away with it because he is blessed with luck at this tournament.
He's had this luck at other tournaments too. It's incredible the run of good fortune he's had.
If he is to lead England to glory, though, he can't rely on luck forever.
Big and brave calls have to be made. Harry Kane is badly out of form. He has posed hardly any threat across five games now.
He was only taken off well into extra time when he picked up a knock.
Is Southgate going to allow a Cristiano Ronaldo situation to develop?
No player should be undroppable. It doesn't matter if you wear the captain's armband.
Southgate has plenty of other options up front. He can't afford to always wait until changes are forced upon him.
Is there anyone who is willing to tell Southgate that he can't keep going the way he's going?
It seems that Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink is his main sounding board.
In September 2022, Hasselbaink resigned as Burton Albion manager after just seven games of the season.
They were bottom of League One with just one point from seven games.
He also managed Royal Antwerp in the Belgian Second Division, QPR in the Championship and Northampton Town in League One.
Hasselbaink had a fine playing career but his managerial one has been mediocre.
But somehow he landed the job of Southgate's assistant with England. In game after game, he is in Southgate's ear.
If that has, in part, contributed to the turgid stuff we've had to endure from England, it's bewildering.
The buck does stop with Southgate, however. He'll feel his approach has been vindicated by England's progress. It hasn't, he's just been lucky.
If such a limited team make the final, what does it tell us about Euro 2024?
It tells us that international football - in Europe, anyway - is not in a great place.
Premier League clubs started preseason training last week but international football is still going on, all over the world.
Players are tired - both physically and mentally. The best players have been defenders, even 41-year-old Pepe was able to leave his mark.
That tells me that it's a far from vintage tournament.
I have enjoyed Spain but I think their younger players are starting to feel the heat and wilt under the pressure.
France, because of the players and experience they have, are the best bet to win outright, but this is a tournament that raises serious questions about Mbappe.
We saw him as the heir to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo as the world's greatest player.
But I'm not sure if he'll ever be the player he promised to be.
He chose to cruise in the French league for far too long and has been dreadful at the Euros. A broken nose is no excuse.
We'll know his real worth when he goes to Real Madrid. I wouldn't be convinced he'll shine there.
I can see us ending up with an England v France final, and that would likely be a hard watch.
England are dreaming again, but Southgate has come up with a team that play with fear - fear of mistakes, fear of the press, fear of their fans, fear of criticism.
I'm not convinced fear can drive a team to glory, but it will get them to the European Championships final.
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