In five or seven years, the parties will be ready for the next round of conflict. Israel's hopes of eradicating its enemies are proving futile and the Palestinians have failed to grasp the futility of fighting a state that has sophisticated weapons and is supported by the world's strongest military power.

This pattern has been repeated over the past fifty years. Each time, the international community has condemned the violence, urged the parties to come to their senses and made attempts at mediation that have not been followed up with concrete measures when agreements are broken.

Even though a major regional conflict would have severe consequences for the rest of the world, they have not wanted to realize that Israelis and Palestinians will never get out of the vicious circle on their own. It is obvious that resolute action is needed, not least by Israel's protector power, the United States, but also by a divided Europe and a crouching Arab world.

Attempts have been made over the fifty years, but always failed because one of the actors was not ready to follow up on their commitments. Time is running out for a two-state solution, simply because Israel is doing its best to sabotage it by giving ever freer hands to more settlers in the West Bank. The UN is paralyzed by the right of veto and in the United States, politicians compete for the votes of the pro-Israel citizens.

Today, the Israelis are not ready for a deal with the Palestinians. In part, this can be explained by demographics: The majority of voters are made up of immigrants from Arab countries and from Russia, plus settlers and radical Orthodox. Among them, the analysis of Israel's future is neglected due to emotional and religious blockages. Many have embraced the role of victim, while more people in the outside world see the Palestinians in that role.

Israel is likely to choose to continue to rely on strength and on the inability of the outside world to intervene. They are prepared to live with a deteriorating reputation both in the West and in the Global South. At the same time, the country's leaders avoid the question of how the state of Israel can remain both Jewish and democratic with a growing Palestinian population. The settlers seem to think that you can chase away the Palestinians with scare tactics and outright violence – where?

Israeli politicians blame the fact that they do not have a dependable partner to negotiate with. At the same time, attempts to build a Palestinian administration have been undermined. Gaza's isolation provided a breeding ground for Hamas terror attack and the war has now radicalized the West Bank as well. Israel's armed preparedness is taking a toll on the body and soul of society.

Israel's friends usually emphasize that the country is the only democratic in the region. In the latest issue of the journal Foreign Affairs, Dahlia Scheindlin describes how the rule of law and democracy are gradually being eroded. The country has no constitution and only a few laws with constitutional status. There is no statute on rights and freedoms. The government is dependent on extreme religious parties that do not approve of a secular state and are preparing for a final annexation of the West Bank.

Soon, Israel will declare victory over its enemies. But is Israel actually victorious? Despite the killing of the leaders and the weakening of their movements, the country is not an inch closer to solving the basic problems. The West Bank is destabilized, Gaza's future is unclear, the country is seen in large parts of the world as a pariah state. Domestic politics is highly polarized, the question of whether a Jewish or a democratic state remains unresolved, and dependence on U.S. military and financial support is accentuated.

Israel's existential question is how to find a workable and peaceful model for coexistence between c. seven million Jews and seven million Palestinians living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. Israel must come to terms with it to survive eventually. The Palestinians are the weaker party that must be given a voice to achieve a balanced solution.

Will this year-long outburst of violence produce some new thinking outside Israel and Palestine? Perhaps. If the Gulf States find it necessary to re-evaluate their lukewarm policies towards the Palestinian distress. If that happens, it could lead to a chain reaction that forces the Trump administration to reconsider the unconditional and expensive support for America´s client.

A key actor is Iran; without its open or tacit agreement it is not possible to build a regional security order of some sort. Iran can be a destructive actor, but it has the capacity to be a positive one, if it decides to look for an alternative way of creating a future for the Palestinians – and its own youthful population.

This may be dreaming, but in the present gloom it is important to believe in the existence of a window through which a brighter future would loom.

The outside world has rightly condemned Hamas's bestial rampage and Israel's indiscriminate bombing. Now it is its duty to actively contribute to breaking the vicious circle.

HT

Pär Stenbäck

Pär Stenbäck is a Minister (Hon.), a political scientist and a former foreign minister of Finland. He functioned as a monitor of cooperation on humanitarian issues between Israelian and Palestinian actors between 2007 and 2015, on behalf of the International Red Cross.