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Fears of violent clashes rise, as the French hold pivotal election on Sunday

Fears of violent clashes have prompted a ban on a planned protest outside the National Assembly on Sunday evening


  • Jul 07 2024
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 Fears of violent clashes rise, as the French hold pivotal election on Sunday
Fears of violent clashes rise

Concerns about potential violence in Paris and other French cities are mounting as France and Europe hold their breath ahead of a pivotal election on Sunday.

Fears of violent clashes have prompted a ban on a planned protest outside the National Assembly on Sunday evening. Some 30,000 police are expected to be deployed in France on Sunday, with 5,000 of them deployed in Paris alone.

Despite the far-right party National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, being unlikely to win an absolute majority, recent polls indicate they could attract support from centrist and right-wing voters.

According to the latest polls before Sunday's second round of legislative elections, the RN and its allies are projected to secure a relative majority of 210 to 240 seats in the National Assembly. An absolute majority requires 289 seats.

The left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), is expected to win between 170 and 200 seats. Pollsters predict that President Emmanuel Macron's centrist liberal democrats will gain between 95 and 125 seats, while the centre-right Republicans (LR) are forecasted to obtain 25 to 45 seats.

If these predictions are confirmed, Bardella will likely not become the new prime minister, as he would not have sufficient MPs to control the French executive power, even with additional support from LR. Even in the best-case scenario, he is expected to fall short of an absolute majority. Nevertheless, Bardella remains hopeful for a last-minute surge. 

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