'Double spike' fears as pressure on overwhelmed hospitals unlikely to ease any time soon
"We are living through a national emergency"
Flu cases should peak this week but the pressures on overwhelmed hospitals will not immediately lift, the HSE has warned.
Its Chief Clinical Officer Dr Colm Henry also today warned of fears over a "double spike" in cases amid the return to work and school. He admitted that the expected end of the current surge may offer only a brief respite for hospital staff.
He said: "We are living through a national emergency. We are on the phone every day, examining every hospital and community space for capacity. It is unsafe for people to be on trolleys for long periods of time. We need more capacity."
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He added: "We do reach a peak around the first or second week of January, then cases will continue to come through. They are coming through to a very highly pressurised healthcare system. We see what we call a double spike, or a second spike, during the return to work and school, when another strain of influenza virus [emerges]."
Dr Henry continued: "We expect it to peak this week, but there are ongoing cases. It doesn’t just stop suddenly. In any one season, we expect 10 per cent to 15 per cent of the population to get flu and affect the vulnerable, like children. Last year, we had over 1,000 children hospitalised from influenza."
He revealed this year’s nasty flu strain A(H1), which has infected over 3,000 people in recent weeks, was last dominant seven years ago.
He said: "This A(H1) strain hasn’t been the dominant strain since the winter of 2018-19 and 2015-16. Covid disrupted virus seasons. We had the A(H3) strain for the past few years and we haven’t seen this A(H1) for a few years. This might explain why we’re seeing a surge of cases in hospital."
The HSE has urged people to get a winter vaccine to protect themselves from the "worst impacts of flu and Covid-19". But Dr Henry said that the jab will not guarantee protection against sickness. He told RTE: "Vaccines are never 100 per cent effective. We know from previous seasons of A(H1), like in 2015-16, that vaccines were moderately effective [against it], while it was more effective in 2018-19." He added: "Covid is not yet seen as a seasonal virus. It is highly contagious."
There has been a slow uptake of the flu vaccine against A(H1), according to Rotunda maternity hospital master Prof Sean Daly in Dublin. Prof Daly claimed that the low uptake meant that the vaccine was "probably" not as effective as previous flu vaccines.
The INMO claimed Ireland needs a national emergency plan to deal with the high level of flu cases. It pointed out that the country faces the same crisis every winter.
HSE chief executive Bernard Gloster last week predicted 900 flu patients – and that number was exceeded just days later. Dr Henry said there were 748 flu patients in hospital, while cases in the community were more than 3,000. The INMO’s latest Trolley Watch figures stated there were 700 patients waiting for beds in hospitals across the country this morning.
Medics are concerned because infectious diseases can spread in overcrowded conditions. University Hospital Limerick’s figure of 102 patients waiting for a bed was the highest nationally, followed by 70 at Cork University Hospital, and 58 at University Hospital Galway.
Fears of a winter virus surge prompted health chiefs to issue warnings about the flu as long ago as last August. They had acute fears for respiratory illness, Covid, the flu, and the risk from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
A HSE spokesperson said today: "Flu is circulating in the community and it will continue to circulate at high levels. Influenza A(H1)pdm09 is the predominant virus circulating. Unfortunately, every winter we see rises in certain infections, including seasonal flu and winter vomiting virus (norovirus).
"While for many, such illnesses are unpleasant but relatively mild, for some people, especially the very young or those who are older, and some with underlying medical conditions, these infections can be very serious."
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