Andy Farrell watched Ireland beat Australia by just three points in Dublin in November - Lions places will be up for grabs through 2025 Six Nations
Andy Farrell and the Lions head Down Under to face Australia this summer
The first thing to remember is that selection is purely down to the head coach, Andy Farrell - he is not under any pressure to fill quotas or anything of the sort.
The second is he was watching Ireland beat Australia in November - but it needed a converted try seven minutes from time overhauling a four-point deficit.
Farrell will also be spending time in France looking at those who are eligible for the Tour.
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Unlike England and Ireland who won’t pick foreign-based players for the national side, the Lions have no such barrier.
Blair Kinghorn, Jack Willis (Toulouse), Jonny Gray (Bordeaux), Kyle Sinckler, Dave Ribbans, Lewis Ludlum, Dan Biggar, Ben White and soon-to-arrive Zach Mercer (Toulon) are at top three clubs in the Top 14.
Others such as Jack Nowell (La Rochelle), Harry Williams, Sam Simmonds, Stuart Hogg (Montpellier), Owen Farrell, Henry Arundel (Racing 92) and Joe Marchant (Stade Francais) might catch the eye.
There is still a fair way to go the opening Lions game, against Argentina in Dublin on June 20, but the big conversation is the XV to face Australia in the First Test in Brisbane on July 19.
At full-back, BLAIR KINGHORN, based at Toulouse, may well be playing for the back-to-back European and Top 14 champions which will mean he has had the better of Hugo Keenan at club level — again.
Keenan would be as good a full-back as the Lions have ever had and indeed, may be just pure unlucky here, while England supporters will be talking up Tommy Furbank, albeit the Northampton player is not as good under a dropping ball as either Kinghorn or Keenan.
Of the two wide slots, the left wing No11 shirt is sewn up, with very little doubt that once he is fit DUHAN van der MERWE will fill it; the Scotland star was a 2021 Lion and has bagged 30 tries in 44 appearances for his national team.
Expect plenty of noise from England supporters concerning their man Immanuel Feyi-Waboso as the right-winger, a player for whom the hype machine is in overdrive.
As of right now, he has played 11 games this season, nine for Exeter and two for England and lost all 11.
Moreover, when it comes to the Six Nations England could well decide to use Tommy Freeman on the right wing. Scotland’s Darcy Graham will have his supporters too while Farrell has been particularly supportive of Mack Hansen’s career to here.
But, crucially, there is the return from injury of Wales’ 2021 Lions Test free-running winger JOSH ADAMS, still only 29, who is five games and four tries into his return for high-flying Cardiff.
Scotland’s powerhouse runner SIONE TUIPULOTU looks the nailed-on No12, which would have shocked a lot of people some time back as he looked a very average, cumbersome lump when first arriving to Test rugby.
Let’s be charitable and suggest that playing for Melbourne Rising, Rebels, Shizuoka Blue Revs and Eastern Suburbs didn’t install any great game discipline but arriving at Glasgow Warriors in 2021 tidied his game up from where his Scotland performances have grown and grown.
That nailing on of the No12 shirt will leave 2021 tourists Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw slugging it out with Garry Ringrose, who was not selected to tour in 2021, for the No13 shirt.
First job here will be to get on the tour as all three are unlikely to travel.
ROBBIE HENSHAW’s power could be the go-to as Farrell looks to rough it out, to run at Australia rather than around them.
Bundee’s age, 34, is working against him, and Ringrose’s defence, his 30 per cent missed-tackle rate, may count against him.
Finn Russell is a strong contender should Scotland’s Six Nations’ campaign sizzle but it is more likely the winner of the battle for the England outhalf shirt between Marcus Smith, who will have first ‘dibs’ and Fin Smith will be key.
There will be excited Munster talk of Jack Crowley and wild Irish pushing of Sam Prendergast but the certainty is that a more experienced No10 will be brought on tour.
If England do well with MARCUS SMITH in the Six Nations, he will be in pole position but expect Farrell to have Owen Farrell in Australia ... just in case.
Barring injury, JAMISON GIBSON-PARK, who epitomises the quick-quick game the coach wants, is nailed on to start, the alpha male among most-likely three scrum-halves — expect Scotland’s Toulon-based Ben White to be among them too.
ANDREW PORTER is one of the best looseheads the world has ever seen (and believed to be working hard at playing tight-head again if needed).
His regular contribution of double-figure tackling marks him out as an auxiliary flanker. Sure, hookers can do a flanker-type job but a loosehead?
If fit, and he is expected back this January, TADHG FURLONG will start at No3.
The 2018-2023 Furlong’ was the Six Nations best tighthead by some distance but has only played twice this season, at Benetton (October 5th, for, 56 mins) and at Croke Park against Munster (October 12th, for 64 mins).
Right now, hooker is very difficult to predict. Contenders include England veterans Jamie George, Luke Cowan-Dickie, tyro Theo Dan, Ireland’s Dan Sheehan, Ronan Kelleher, Gus McCarthy and Wales co-captain Dewi Lake.
Also, this is dependent on how England’s lineout functions, whether Ireland/Paul O’Connell’s lineout improves significantly and what Farrell makes of Adam Beard’s club/Test and 2021 Lions outstanding lineout statistics.
Right now, it looks like the England Six Nations incumbent will be in pole position, albeit George was poor through November and he is a sloppy defender.
Possible Six Nations starter LUKE COWAN-DICKIE started the first and second 2021 Lions Test and was on the bench for the third.
Joe McCarthy and George Martin are similarly rampaging second-rows of a type Farrell prefers. The 23 year-old Irishman comes in at 6ft 6in and 17st 7lbs while the English 23 year-old is also 6ft 6in and weighs 19st 7lbs.
Maro Itoje has refound some form this past year after a disappointing 18 months; his long-term rival James Ryan who has also refound his mojo this year; and, as mentioned, Beard will also be contenders.
Farrell will not select two 23 year-old rookies on their first Lions Tour to start the First Test and is likely to choose the heavier man, albeit Martin will need a better Six Nations then what was on show in November. 2021 Lions Test regular MARO ITOJE to start alongside GEORGE MARTIN.
That barring an injury CAELAN DORIS will be at No8 is a certainty and, indeed, had he been appointed Ireland captain a year earlier he would be nailed-on Lions skipper as well.
Doris has both the best attacking and defensive game of any of the No8s in contention for the position and it would be a surprise were there anyone trumpeting Mat Fagerson or the slightly-too-small Ben Earl ahead of him.
The 2022 world player of the year JOSH van der FLIER remains the Six Nations pre-eminent No7, with Scotland’s Rory Darge and Wales Jac Morgan likely understudies.
Moreover, placing Doris at No8 frees up some of the thinking around blindside No6. Farrell night wants mobility/pace, a lineout option or some heft.
CHANDLER CUNNINGHAM-SOUTH, still only 21 and with 11 England caps already, stood out through November and were he to come on another 10 per cent in the Six Nations, he will get first run.
Options include the bulkier Matt Fagerson, the lighter Tom Curry; Morgan often plays there at club level, while Farrell used Tadhg Beirne for New Zealand, Argentina, Australia in November despite having only made four Munster starts at No6 dating back to December 2019.
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