Shelbourne, Derry, Shamrock Rovers, St Pat's or Galway? Who will win this year's League of Ireland title?
Shelbourne, Derry City, Shamrock Rovers, Galway United and St Patrick's Athletic all have a chance of winning this year's League of Ireland title but look at the run-in and you decide who is going to claim the 2024 title.
Ten days ago, the 2024 League of Ireland was called a two-horse race. Now it is being called the best and most exciting title decider in League history.
Five teams can win it. Yet it has been a season where no one seems to want to do so.
First you have Shelbourne, leaders for all bar a week, since March. They have won once in their last 10. Then you have Derry, chasing a first league title since 1997. They have won only one of their last seven league games. Next you have Shamrock Rovers, chasing history, a five in a row. They have lost nine times this season. Then there is Galway, ignored all year. They are still in it but no one expects them to win it. And finally St Pat’s, brimming with confidence, considered relegation contenders in July. Now on a run of six wins and a draw from seven games, convinced they can win their last four. Will that be enough to clinch the unlikeliest title win ever? Normally you’d say no. But in this crazy League of Ireland season, you can’t say anything for certain.
Here is the verdict on the Famous Five.
Shelbourne
All their rivals strengthened in the summer. Derry and St Pat’s got new players in; Shamrock Rovers got old ones back, Byrne, Farrugia, Burke. And it has made a difference.
Shels don’t look quite the same without defender Gavin Molloy, whose recovery pace on the turn allowed them to play a high line without fearing the consequence.
You knew what you were going to get from Molloy. The disappearance of that solidity combined with JJ Lunney’s absence through injury and Will Jarvis’ sale has taken away three of the League’s best players. And the replacements have not been as good.
There is no defender quite as quick as Molloy, no midfielder quite as accurate in their passing as Lunney, no winger quite as capable of getting a goal out of nothing as Jarvis.
These things add up. Shels have won just one league game in 10. They now need to win three from three.
Will they?
Well, Waterford and Drogheda at home are winnable games. Collect six points there and you remove Galway and St Pat’s from the argument. Then it is Derry away. In three league games this season, there have been three draws. Don’t rule out a fourth.
Points: 54
Remaining fixtures
Friday Oct 18: Waterford (h)
Friday 25: Drogheda (h)
Fri Nov 1: Derry (a)
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Derry City
Their run-in looks easy on paper but it is far from that. Sligo and Dundalk have taken points off them this season and while Bohs are toothless in attack, they are talented in midfield. Then there is St Pat’s away and Shels at home. One point is all they may get from those two games.
But the question is not about Derry’s opposition but about Derry themselves. When it comes to looking gift horses in the mouth, this team has turned into equine dentists.
It’s time to seize the opportunity of a lifetime because, like Shels, fate is in their hands. They have won one of their last seven league games, have not won in the League this season against the top two teams and simply have to step up a level.
Patrick McEleney, Will Patching and Michael Duffy have been sporadically good. From now until November 1, they need to be excellent. Meet that demand and they will be champions.
Points: 50
Remaining fixtures:
Friday: Bohs (h)
Monday: Sligo (h)
Friday 18: Dundalk (a)
Friday 25: St Pat’s (a)
Friday 1: Shels (h)
Shamrock Rovers
Their run in leads you to suspect they will win their last three games. They are playing with an intensity these days, pace and power combined with quality, Jack Byrne’s goal on Sunday against Shels, created by Neil Farrugia, summed up the best of them.
When they play on the front foot, when they drive forward relentlessly, when they decline the option of taking too many safe passes, they are unstoppable. But teams like Drogheda, Galway and Waterford have managed to stop them this year. The champions have lost nine times. There is a reason for that: namely that Rovers have been too flat, too focused on ball retention in those games.
Lately, they have been moving the ball quicker, supplying runners from wing back and midfield, suffocating teams. That constant drive is impossible to contain. They will win their last three games. The onus then is on Shels or Derry to get to 62 points.
Points: 52
Remaining fixtures
Friday 18 Oct: Drogheda (a)
Sunday 27 Oct: Dundalk (a)
Friday 1 Nov: Waterford (h)
Galway United
They have been the untold story of the season. Hard working, well organised, miserly in defence, they have punched way above their weight.
But it is a different story now. The eyes of the country are on them. First time they were handed that responsibility, they drew against the bottom team in the League. That is the difference between flying under the radar and being the centre of attention. Pressure is tough. Galway will win respect this season. But not the League.
Remaining fixtures
Points: 50
Friday 18: St Pat’s (a)
Friday 25: Sligo (h)
Friday Nov 1: Bohs (a)
St Pat’s
In one sense, no pressure is on them. But another way of looking at it is that there is loads of pressure to control.
St Pat’s have no margin for error. Four wins will get them to 59 points and then they need three other teams to mess up. Not all three will. Had St Pat’s started this run a month earlier then yes, we would have backed them to win the League. Right now, third is realistically the best they can hope for.
Points: 47
Remaining fixtures
Monday: Bohs (a)
Friday 18: Galway (h)
Friday 25: Derry (h)
November 1: Sligo (a)
VERDICT
Derry can win it. Everything points to them doing it, the run-in that contains three matches at home, the fact the final match versus Shels is at the Brandywell, the fact their confidence is high on the back of Friday’s Cup semi-final win over Bohs.
Four wins from five will be enough. Have they the quality to get there? Yes. But have they the nerve? That is the biggest question those players have to answer between now and 9.45pm on November 1.
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