Tea and Coffee prices set to soar due to perfect storm affecting worldwide supplies
Irish climatologists have warned that tea leaf and coffee bean farmers may not be able to adapt to make sure that supply meets worldwide increased demand, resulting in a likely surge in prices
Tea and coffee drinkers have been warned that soaring prices are going to continue to rise as worldwide supplies face an unprecedented crisis.
A perfect storm of climate change affecting the Jet Stream and El Niño, the escalating number of damaging conflicts around the globe and unpredictable inflationary fluxes are responsible for reduced yields, it is claimed.
Figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show that the cost of tea in Ireland has risen by 7 per cent and a coffee shot is up by 15 per cent in price since 2020. Irish climatologists have warned that tea leaf and coffee bean farmers may not be able to adapt to make sure that supply meets worldwide increased demand.
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Maynooth University emeritus professor John Sweeney said: “Tea is a very sensitive crop and it is only grown in parts of the world, near the Equator. People in Ireland like tea from India and that area has been affected quite badly by extremes of climate over the past few years.
“It is prone to flooding and they have been getting high temperatures so the leaves and shoots shrivel up and die. They have experienced significant loss of yield. There have been horrific heatwaves."
Climatologist professor Sweeney added: “For crops like tea and coffee, this means yield reductions. People will have noticed that they have gone up quite considerably in price this past year. This is because of failures in the harvest in India and Kenya. Those two key producing areas have suffered a lot. The signs are that they are going to become more unreliable, which means uncertainty of supply and substantial increases in prices.”
Queen’s University Belfast food security professor Chris Elliott explained that conflicts like that involving Israel in Gaza are also contributing factors.
He said: “Climate is the real biggest factor in terms of costs, but also we have a world full of conflict. There are more conflicts in the world now than at any time in the past 100 years. The impact of the war in Gaza is causing massive issues in the Red Sea. Shipping would have used the Red Sea.
“But it is dangerous now, so a lot of the shipping is taking the long way round the Horn of Africa. This means it is taking up to eight weeks longer for products like tea to come to us and that brings additional cost as well.
The El Niño weather phenomenon that is linked by climate change experts with the Earth warming up and sparking dangerous heatwaves, increased rainfall, droughts and thunderstorms, is also having an impact.
The two hottest days ever recorded were in the last week when July 21 reached a global average surface air temperature of 17.09 degrees Celsius – but was then beaten on July 22 when 17.15 degrees Celsius was recorded, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Irish coffee shops rely on robusta and arabica beans for the millions of americanos, lattes and cappuccinos they make and extreme weather is having an impact on crops.
CSO figures show that coffee prices in Ireland are now almost 16 per cent higher compared to four years ago. Various cost surveys show that americano prices are now around 19 per cent more expensive than in 2020, a cappuccino is 16.5 per cent dearer, and a mocha is 18.6 per cent more expensive.
Nestlé said in April that it has experienced “significant increases in the cost of coffee, making it much more expensive to manufacture our products”. Wholesale coffee prices are up by more than 20 per cent since January after crops were hit by extreme weather in other countries too, including Vietnam and Brazil, as well as China and Sri Lanka.
Andrew Moriarty of analyst firm Mintec said: “Robusta prices have been increasing for some time on two successive lower harvests in Vietnam.” He warned: “Many market participants expect the last harvest was down by around 20 per cent year-on-year.”
The same problems are also being encountered in the UK. Its Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said: "The cost of our morning coffee is soaring as climate change hits crops in Brazil and Vietnam. Worsening climate extremes are threatening food crops in the UK and overseas. We import half the food we consume, so damaged crops limit supplies and raise prices in our shops.”
Amid fears that shortages could be looming, the UK’s Institute of Export and International Trade warned: “The tranquillity of our tea supply and demand has been disrupted by recent upheavals, which has resulted in a surge in prices. These disruptions have rippled throughout the global supply chain, adding to price pressures.”
Its spokesperson added: “All of which put further pressure on consumers' already stretched purses and complicating businesses' supply chains.”
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