Ireland could hit record-breaking 34 degree temperatures this decade, say climate scientists
"Changes in extremes are much larger than the changes in the average and are something we should be seriously concerned about," said Professor Andrew Parnell of Maynooth’s Hamilton Institute
Ireland could see summer temperatures reaching a record-busting 34 degrees in three to five years, according to leading scientists.
New research, led by Maynooth University boffins, has found the nation is now 20 times more likely to experience extreme heatwaves than 80 years ago. The increasing likelihood of such extreme summers could have profound implications for public health, agriculture, economic stability and the resilience of our infrastructure.
According to the study, which predicts the frequency, magnitude and extent of extreme summer temperatures in Ireland, the 33 degrees recorded in 2022 in Dublin’s Phoenix Park - the second-highest temperature ever recorded in Ireland since records began - is now far more likely to occur on a more regular basis.
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The new model scientists have developed found the chance of such heat has risen from being a one in 180-year event in 1942 to a one in nine-year event in 2020. But it also estimates a record-breaking temperature of 34 degrees has moved from a one in a 1,600-year event to a one in a 28-year-event over the same period. The mercury has not hit 34 degrees in Ireland since records began.
Professor Andrew Parnell and Dr Dáire Healy at Maynooth’s Hamilton Institute led the study in collaboration with Professor Peter Thorne of Maynooth's ICARUS Climate Research Centre and Professor Jonathan Tawn at Lancaster University.
Professor Parnell said: “We are often focussed on average changes, and particularly focus on the Paris Climate Agreement of 1.5C. What we have shown here is that the changes in extremes are much larger than the changes in the average and are something we should be seriously concerned about.
“This has implications for health because we will see much higher admissions into hospitals during extreme heat. It causes problems for agriculture, as all kinds of crops depend on our climate.
“And as that all shifts, we really don’t know exactly what will happen to our economy, to our agriculture and our health system. That’s what we’re really starting to look at. These things can be much more frequent. We need to follow through on our climate commitments. We need to make sure that we adapt, and we’re prepared for these kinds of things."
Professor Parnell says the findings underline the urgency for societal adaptation to increasing extreme temperature events, which have profound implications for public health, agriculture, economic stability, and infrastructure resilience.
Meanwhile, the team behind the research believe the model’s ability to predict extreme weather events could be a powerful tool for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate risk and plan for future climate scenarios.
Dr Healy added: “We found that spatial heatwave events over thresholds that are critical for society have become much larger, having at least doubled in extent for 28 degree Celsius, with this change increasing at more extreme temperatures.”
Jerry MacEvilly from Friends of the Earth Ireland said: "This Maynooth University analysis shows that the climate emergency is here with us in Ireland. Extreme heat poses major risks to our health and environment and especially for already vulnerable communities.
"The findings underline the need for climate action to be treated by Government like an emergency. This means all parts of Government must now prioritise actions and clear implementation plans to reduce the polluting emissions that are driving the climate emergency.
"We don’t need miracles. We need Government to end the current fossil fuel free-for-all with the solutions available right now - from wind and solar, to heat pumps, to reducing car demand, as well as strategies to prevent reliance on gas, oil and coal."
The research findings were detailed in a recent paper, ‘Inference for Extreme Spatial Temperature Events in a Changing Climate with Application to Ireland’ and were read to The Royal Statistical Society at a webinar on ‘Statistical Aspects of Climate Change’ on June 3.
New mathematical techniques were used in the model to capture both location and temporal variations in extreme daily maximum temperatures.
Subsequent analysis by the research team then identified a significant change in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over time, which exceeds the observed changes in mean temperature levels over the same period.
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