SPONSORED: Make the most of Punchestown Festival with these expert tips from Novibet
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The Punchestown Festival is now well underway, having kicked off on April 30 - and we still have plenty of fantastic races to look forward to!
To help you with your horse racing bets for the rest of the festival, Novibet have put together this handy guide for days four and five.
The going at Punchestown is currently yielding and good to yielding in places. However, with more rain forecast on Wednesday evening, Thursday, and Friday, will the conditions play a significant part in the later races this week?
To add to the excitement, Novibet are offering new customers €60 in free bets with just a €10 wager, while existing customers can enjoy the incredible offer of up to 6 places each way on selected races. As if that wasn't tempting enough - all Novibet customers can get a free €5 bet every day in Punchestown once they bet €10!
Day 4 - Friday, May 3rd
The first race is the Stanley Asphalt Hunters’ Chase, with 12 runners. There are seven more races before the end of the day, with the last event starting at 7:40pm. All eyes will be on the Boodles Champion Hurdle at 6pm, where the field is fighting for a €300,000 prize pot with €177,000 going to be the winner.
Here are Novibet's top tips for each race:
15:40 Stanley Asphalt Hunters’ Chase for the Bishopscourt Cup
Prediction: De Nordener
The first race on Friday sees a field of 12 compete for the Bishopscourt Cup. Our pick for the race winner is De Nordener after its performance in the first race on Tuesday. De Nordener finished fifth in the Punchestown Festival opener, but we expect an uptick on Friday. Several runners in the field have raced at Punchestown before, and De Nordener previously had a second-place finish at the racecourse this year.
There is one runner with a win at Punchestown, Private Ryan. The horse trained by Sean Thomas Doyle has only run twice in 2024, including the Punchestown win in February. Since then, Private Ryan finished fifth in a field of seven at Knockanohill in heavy conditions. Both runners will aim to win the race, but some horses could land if you bet each way. Chateau Elan has two fourth-placed finishes at Punchestown since April last year. Plus, Keenaghan Lass came third at this racecourse in February. The rest of the field has horses that have pulled up or fallen in recent months. It is usually best when making a horse racing bet to avoid these runners.
16:15 EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase (Listed)
Prediction: Tactical Move
With 30 runners in the 4:15 pm race, all eyes will be on a select few horses. Our pick for the race win is Tactical Move, but any of the Willie Mullins horses is in with a chance. The four Mullins-trained runners in this race are Blood Destiny, Mister Policeman, Tactical Move and Spanish Harlem. There is still time for one or more runners to drop out, and we don’t expect Spanish Harlem to be up there with the best. Instead, we predict Tactical Move will take the win and there will be a close battle for the second.
Looking at placing a horse racing bet on this event will be tough, as the top three Mullins horses have all been jockeyed by Paul Townend recently. Blood Destiny is the youngest of the three, with a recent third-place result at Fairyhouse in March. Mister Policeman has two recent victories, including one in Punchestown. Tactical Move is ten years old but has a win in a field of 22 at Punchestown in January 2023. That was a mighty performance on the back of a 1,158-day break. 2024 has seen the horse compete in four events, taking two wins and two-second places.
16:50 Hanlon Concrete Irish EBF Glencarraig Lady Francis Flood Mares Chase (Grade 2)
Prediction: Brides Hill
The third race on Friday has nine runners, and our pick is for Brides Hill. The Gavin Cromwell-trained horse has been fantastic since falling in April 2023 in Perth. After that fall, Brides Hill has won three on the bounce in Listowel, Fairyhouse and Huntingdon. Punchestown will offer a unique challenge for Brides Hill, having recently excelled on a flat, fast track. The undulation and yielding conditions could open the door to the rest of the field.
Novibet's online sports betting site might favour Allegorie De Vassy as the favourite, another Mullins horse. It ran well with Paul Townend in the saddle in February at Naas, coming first on an undulating galloping track. However, we are going with Brides Hill following Allegorie De Vassy’s fourth-place finish at Cheltenham this year. Jumping Jet could be a surprise finisher having won at Downpatrick on April 26th. The horse beat a field of 14 on a right-handed undulating track in similar conditions to Punchestown this week. Betting on horses is never straightforward, so betting each way on Jumping Jet could return a profit.
17:25 Event Power Champion Hunters’ Chase
Prediction: Its On The Line
With 20 runners, Novibet has cracking odds for most of the field. We are backing Its On The Line to take the win in this race. Trainer Emmet Mullins has seen Its On The Line go from strength to strength, winning three races in a row before coming second at Cheltenham. It recovered well to win at Aintree by over four lengths.
Betting on this event will be tough for each way bettors, as there are plenty of contenders. Annamix came third behind Its On The Line at Aintree, but the horse has a history of pulling up and did so at Punchestown in April 2023. Lifetime Ambition is one runner that many will overlook following some issues with unseating the jockey. In between unseating events at Aintree in 2023 and Lisronagh in February, the horse has three race wins and one second-place finish. It would be a risky bet, but Lifetime Ambition could be amongst the top few down the final straight. Jay Bee Why is another outsider with four second-place finishes in 2024.
18:00 Boodles Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
Prediction: State Man
The big race on Day 4 will be a close one, but we're predicting the 6pm race winner will be State Man. The Willie Mullins-trained horse is the current favourite at our online betting site, with odds of 2/5. We expect the odds to fluctuate between now and race day, but there only looks like one winner. Locking in your horse racing bet early could guarantee the most profit.
We are backing State Man to win as the deadly duo of Mullins and Townend are on an incredible streak. The horse has won five races in a row since April 2023. More importantly, State Man won twice at Punchestown in April and November last year. Irish Point is the next most likely to win at 4/1, and that feels unlikely even with a five-horse field confirmed so far. We predict if any horse was to come second in this race, it would be Lossiemouth. This horse is also enjoying a four-race win streak, including one victory at Punchestown in 2023. Plus, the horse has won three times at Cheltenham, another undulating track. Betting on State Man to win and Lossiemouth each way is the way to go!
18:35 Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Prediction: Ballyburn
While it’s always best to look beyond just the favourite of each race, it’s hard to ignore Ballyburn. The horse is well-known thanks to a recent Cheltenham win. But, perhaps more importantly, trained by Willie Mullins and jockeyed by Paul Townend. The pair have already tasted Cheltenham and Grand National success, and we expect Ballyburn to be another runner to deliver.
Besides winning three races since December, Ballyburn has two Punchestown wins from 2023. Even in a competitive field, the Mullins-trained horse stands out as 1/3 favourites at our online betting site. Slade Steel could offer good value each way if you want better-value horse racing bets. Henry De Bromhead’s horse won in Punchestown in December 2022, so it has some pedigree. Billericay Dickie has won more recently in Punchestown, coming first in a field of six in January. Predators Gold might be another risky alternative, racking up two wins at this racecourse in 2023. There are plenty of options for betting each way in this race, which does not make your job any easier.
19:05 Uniquely Novice Hurdle
Prediction: Anotherway
The penultimate race on Friday will be a thriller with 23 runners confirmed for the event. This one will be tough to get right, especially since they scheduled Billericay Dickie for both the 6:35 and 7:05pm races. We expect the Mullins horse to run in one of these events. If they declare the horse for the previous race, that opens the door up to the competition.
A large percentage of the field has experience racing at Punchestown, including several wins. Anotherway might be a favourite for punters making a horse racing bet, but the Mullins-trained horse fell in its last race at Fairyhouse. No Flies On Him came second at Punchestown in February, but since then struggled to seventh place at Fairyhouse. Silver King could be worth an outside bet, having raced three times at Punchestown in the last six months. However, Anotherway will win, bouncing back from the recent fall.
19:40 Howden Insurance Brokers INH Flat Race
Prediction: Fishery Lane
The last race on Friday is a flat race for five to seven-year-old mares. The field is incredibly inexperienced compared to the other events on the day, but that adds to the excitement. We are backing Fishery Lane, based on the fifth-place finish at Cheltenham this March. Plus, given the trainer is Willie Mullins, Fishery Lane is in with a shout.
Other horses to consider for the final race on Friday include Going Live, who won in Lingstown a few months ago in similar conditions to Punchestown. I Am Mimi has raced at Punchestown before, back in November. The horse came second in a field of six, which could be a good sign of betting each way. Jackmoon has finished in third place three times since December, including once at the right-handed undulating track at Limerick. Plus, watch out for horses like Melbourne Shamrock and Minella Post who have pulled up or unseated their jockeys, but recorded strong results this year.
Day 5 - Saturday, May 4
The fifth and final day of the Punchestown Festival promises to bring excitement from first race to last. There are a couple of big events to look forward to, plus some races with a competitive field. The returns are even greater when the competition is stiff in horse racing. Below are some horse racing predictions and betting tips for every race on Saturday.
14:30 Donohue Marquees Cross Country Chase
Prediction: Knockiel Synge
With 26 runners in the field, the first race on Saturday should be a doozy. Our pick for this race, Knockiel Synge, won the opening race of this year’s festivities. A few horses will drop out before the race, so ensure you check Novibet before placing a bet.
Betting each way on a field this large could be profitable, but it won’t be easy. Several runners have unseated their jockeys, fallen, or pulled up in recent races. We always try to avoid these types of runners, as there is nothing more disappointing about seeing your horse crash out early in a race. If De Nordener takes part in this race, they could be in for another top-five finish following their earlier performance on day one of the festival. Three By Two is another who has already finished in the top five at Punchestown this year. Plus, Transprint could put in an impressive performance. Those are the main picks to bet on in this horse race.
15:05 Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase
Prediction: Klarc Kent
The second race on Saturday is another with an enormous field we expect to see whittled down. It’s no surprise we are going for one of Willie Mullins’ horses. Klarc Kent fell at the start of the year, but since then has looked solid. The horse came third at Punchestown in February and second at Fairyhouse in March. Klarc Kent also raced at Ayr in April, coming home in fourth in a field of 26. We are backing Klarc Kent to win, but betting each way could be safer.
Looking at the other competitors in the field, Spanish Harlem could be an option based on how they run on day four. Betting each way on Clonmeen also seems like a good option. The horse has run twice at Punchestown in recent months, picking up a win and a third place. He Fitz In is another horse with an outside chance of a top-five finish. This race will be tight, so ensure you manage your horse racing bets to avoid losses.
15:40 Coolmore N.H. Sires Bolshoi Ballet Irish EBF Mares Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
Prediction: Lossiemouth
One of the last big races of the Punchestown Festival is the 3:40 EBF Mares Champion Hurdle. Currently, we have nine runners listed for the race, and we are backing Lossiemouth to win. The horse has the credentials to win this race by two lengths or more. Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have already won big this year, and they are heavy favourites to take home the bulk of the €125,000 prize pot. Currently, Lossiemouth has odds of 1/3 at Novibet. These odds could narrow further depending on how the horse runs on Friday.
The two horses we back to complete the top three include Telmesomethinggirl and Jetara. Telmesomethinggirl is yet to win a race in 2024 but came second in Cheltenham in March. The horse performs better on right-handed undulating tracks, which should come into play today. Jetara is up there. It won at Punchestown in December, plus with recent victories at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown, Jetara is not one to overlook. Ashore Diamond would be further up the pecking order but pulled up at Cheltenham. Hispanic Man also has a good chance of a top-three finish having won at Punchestown twice since November and a third-place finish at Cheltenham.
16:15 Palmerstown House Estate Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
Prediction: Cruz Control
With a field of 33 horses confirmed so far, we expect several to drop out before the race begins at 4:15 pm on Saturday. Horses like Clonmeen, Klarc Kent, Spanish Harlem, and Tactical Move are all scheduled to race on Friday or earlier on Saturday. Depending on which races they declare for will drastically change the odds for this race.
We are backing Cruz Control to cruise to victory on the weekend. The horse trained by Tom Lacey has found some incredible form as of late. Jockey Stan Sheppard has two wins since March on Cruz Control, including a fantastic win at Aintree. As far as betting each way goes, choosing any of the Willie Mullins runners is a good move, if they are declared for this race.
16:50 Ballymore Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle (Grade 1)
Prediction: Bottler’secret
For the 4:50 pm race on Saturday, we are backing Bottler’secret to win. The horse has odds of 2/1 at Novibet but is currently not the favourite. That title belongs to Kargese, one of Willie Mullins’ horses jockeyed by Paul Townend. While it seems unwise to bet against the iconic pairing this year, we fancy Bottler’secret for an outright bet.
With a field of ten, the race should prove exciting as there is a mix of experienced and competitive runners. Nurburgring and Storm Heart have good odds for betting each way. Ensure you check how many places Novibet is paying before you make a wager. There are a few long shots in this field, but none are worth a cheeky horse racing bet.
17:25 SBK Gold Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
Prediction: Olympic Man
Olympic Man, trained by Willie Mullins and recently jockeyed by Paul Townend, should take home the largest chunk of the prize pot. With a string of top finishes in 2024 and 2023, Olympic Man looks the strongest candidate in a mixed field.
Seddon is also worth a punt, having won in Punchestown last April. Plus Samui came tenth in the Punchestown 4:15 on April 30th. While Samui came outside each way places, it could improve on the last day of the festival.
18:00 Lawlor’s Of Naas (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race
Prediction: Final Demand
The second last race of the 2024 Punchestown Festival has a field of inexperienced runners. That will open the door for interesting bets, as there is no way of knowing who will win. We are backing Final Demand to win as the trainer is Willie Mullins. The horse has won one race in March in a field of ten in Lingstown.
However, that track does not offer the same challenges as you will find at Punchestown. That is why we would also back Jacob’s Ladder to win the race. The horse trained by Gordon Elliot has one win in Oldtown on a right-handed undulating track. Other horses like Going Live or Melbourne Shamrock will be up there with the top five, but we back Final Demand and Jacob’s Ladder to battle for the top two spots.
18:30 ‘Have The Conversation – Say Yes To Organ Donation’ Punchestown Charity Race
Prediction: Hurricane Cliff
Predicting horse races is never easy, and the concluding event at the Punchestown Festival could be the hardest. There are 42 runners for this race, most of which have raced very few times this year. We are backing a risky pick for the race win, Hurricane Cliff. Henry De Bromhead trains the horse but it pulled up in the most recent event at Fairyhouse. Hurricane Cliff has a win in Limerick on a right-handed undulating track as recently as March.
Looking across the field, there are a few interesting runners for betting each way. Ricky Langford is well worth a bet and so is Charlies Pride. As it’s the final event of the festival, a lot can change before the horses line up at the post.
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