Ireland weather: Weather models 'all over the place' as hopes of a dry Bank Holiday weekend begin to dampen
It might not be the driest May Bank Holiday on record, but it will at least be warm
Hopes of a dry scorcher this Bank Holiday Weekend have been brought crashing down to Earth as the latest weather models suggest a warm but showery few days to cap off a pretty miserable week.
Met Éireann has been unable to offer us much in the way of good news concerning the prospects of an overdue warm and dry spell due to forecasters across Ireland and Europe being unable to agree on what this weekend has in store.
According to the latest predictions, we still face a "good deal of uncertainty", with Met Éireann now erring on the side of caution by forecasting cloud and showers for Sunday and temperature maxing at 16C.
However, other models appear to have delivered a unanimously unpleasant outlook for the long weekend, with all pointing to bands of rain pushing northwards to cover the whole country.
Weather expert Alan O'Reilly has weighed in on the weather model debate, offering his insight into the confusion posed by this week's contradictory forecasts.
While admitting to there being a considerable risk of "heavy rain" hitting the country on Friday and Saturday, the models are as of now unable to pinpoint where in the country this will happen. He wrote: "Uncertainty around Thursday rain continues and also Friday and Saturday with risk of heavy rain hitting but where is the question and even a chance heaviest will stay East or South of us."
O'Reilly had previously expressed his frustration at the seemingly widespread uncertainty amongst weather models, suggesting that they were 'all over the place' ahead of the weekend.
To help clear things up a little, here is the Met Éireann daily forecast for the next dew days:
Wednesday
A good deal of dry weather with good sunny spells and scattered showers, some possibly heavy in the west and southwest. During the evening, cloud will build from the east. Highest temperatures of 12C to 16C in light to moderate southeasterly winds, fresher for a time in the morning in the northwest.
Thursday
Cloudy for most of the day with outbreaks of rain, most persistent over the southern half of the country with a chance of spot flooding in parts of south Leinster and Munster. Highest temperatures of 10C to 14C where the rain lingers.
Ranging 15C to 19C elsewhere, warmest in Ulster, north Connacht and north Leinster with the best of the sunny spells and the driest conditions. Winds will be mostly light to moderate and variable but will be fresher at times near coasts, especially in the northeast in the evening.
Friday
Mostly cloudy to start with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, gradually easing and becoming patchier. Driest in the morning over the northern half of the country with sunny spells before patchy rain and drizzle extends northwards. Highest temperatures of 12C to 17C generally, continuing warmest in Ulster, in light to moderate westerly or variable breezes.
Saturday
Indications are that most places will start off dry with sunny spells as cloudier conditions with patchy rain and drizzle over Ulster slowly clear northwards. However, another spell of rain will push into the south through the morning, gradually extending northwards over the country through the day. Highest temperatures of 12C to 17C, still warmest in Ulster, in moderate easterly or variable winds.
Sunday
A good deal of uncertainty at this stage, however, it looks like Sunday will be a mostly cloudy day with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Highest temperatures of 13C to 16C.
Bank Holiday Monday
Likely a day of sunny spells and scattered showers, easing through the day. Highest temperatures of 15C to 18C.
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