Are Romania and Bulgaria ahead of Hungary in adopting the euro?

Bulgaria appears to be making significant strides towards joining the eurozone, with plans to potentially adopt the euro as early as January 2026. #EU #euro #Bulgaria #Romania

By: dailynewshungary.com

Dec 22 2024
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Are Romania and Bulgaria ahead

As Hungary grapples with its long-delayed euro adoption, many wonder if Romania and Bulgaria are already ahead of Hungary. Bulgaria appears to be making significant strides towards joining the eurozone, with plans to potentially adopt the euro as early as January 2026. In contrast, Romania faces a more challenging path.

Hungary’s new efforts

As Economx writes, Mihály Varga, Hungary’s incoming central bank governor, is poised to introduce a new monetary policy alongside the country’s euro adoption efforts, believing that such preparations will bolster the Hungarian economy. During a parliamentary hearing, Varga emphasised three key points: Hungary’s commitment to adopting the euro hinges on economic readiness, which can foster sustainable development and mitigate risks; economic policy must meaningfully align with these conditions while preserving policy autonomy; and decisions regarding euro area membership will require consensus between the central bank and the government.

Procrastination

Hungary‘s path to euro adoption has seen numerous delays and shifting timelines since the first Orbán government aimed for a 2007 target. While initial convergence criteria were nearly met, subsequent governments, including those led by Péter Medgyessy and Gordon Bajnai, pushed adoption dates to 2013-2014, only to see prospects diminish following the 2008 financial crisis, significantly weakening the forint.

By 2011, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán deemed a 2020 introduction unrealistic due to economic instability. Despite these setbacks, officials like Mihály Varga reaffirm Hungary’s commitment to the euro. However, György Matolcsy suggested that adoption may not be feasible until after 2030 when Hungary reaches about 90% of the EU’s average development level.

What about Bulgaria and Romania?

While Hungary currently has no competition for euro adoption in the region, Bulgaria is poised to potentially overtake it, with plans to adopt the euro as early as January 2026, contingent on meeting accession conditions. Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev has stated that inflation is expected to decline to acceptable levels by January. However, the country faces a significant budget deficit of EUR 9 billion, about 8% of GDP.

In contrast, Romania’s path to euro adoption appears more distant due to high budget deficits and socio-economic challenges, including poverty and corruption. Currently, Romania does not meet the necessary macroeconomic criteria for joining the euro area, with inflation projected at 7.6% this year. Experts suggest that Romania may not be ready for euro adoption until around 2034.