Slovaks fear Russia. Why is then support for NATO poor?
In most NATO member states, this support is higher.
Most people in Slovakia think that NATO is a guarantee of Slovakia remaining a safe country during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The latest “How Are You, Slovakia?” poll, carried out in mid-March by the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the MNFORCE poll agency, shows that 47 percent of people hold this opinion, compared to 30 percent thinking the opposite, and 23 percent being undecided on this matter.
It's the second-highest support for NATO since the start of the invasion, the TASR news agency writes.
“We are NATO and thanks to NATO we are safe today,” President Zuzana Čaputová said in her speech on March 27. “No other alternative would protect us today the way the Alliance protects us, where it really is about ‘one for all, all for one’.”
Yet, support for NATO membership in Slovakia remains low compared to other countries. According to the NATO’s annual report for 2023, the average support for NATO membership among member states stands at 66 percent. In Slovakia, the support is as high as 60 percent, which is a similar number mentioned in last year’s Globsec survey. Slovaks’ trust in NATO as an alliance protecting them against threats from outside is slightly higher than the NATO average of 61 percent. It’s 62 percent in Slovakia, the NATO report shows.
In 1999, only 28 percent of Slovak people supported the idea of Slovakia joining NATO. In 2004, when the country joined the Alliance, it was 52 percent.
(Source: NATO's 2023 annual report )Geopolitical neutrality favoured
Sociologist Robert Klobucký of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, explains that Slovaks believe that the best geopolitical position for the country is balanced. It’s a paradox because two-thirds of Slovak people consider Russia to be a threat, he adds. In his opinion, fear is also a factor when it comes to Slovakia’s perception of NATO.
“Although we don’t support Russia, and we fear it, we believe that the best strategy today is geopolitical neutrality,” the sociologist notes, as quoted by TASR.
The positions of political elites also play an important role. The communist party was questioning NATO at the time Slovakia was about to join the Alliance. Even the undemocratic prime minister Vladimír Mečiar held anti-NATO views after he was ousted from power in the late nineties. Today, the sociologist adds, it is the Smer ruling party that questions NATO in a way, citing the situation before the war. Smer had then doubted that Russia would invade Ukraine, despite information from NATO allies showing the opposite. Smer also criticises Slovakia’s defence cooperation agreement signed with the USA. However, the ruling party hasn’t mentioned any plans to leave NATO.
On March 26, Fico met with US General Christopher Cavoli in Bratislava. He commands the US army in Europe.
According to the latest SAV findings, 8 percent of Smer voters are pro-Western and 19 percent support Russia. Up to 45 percent want Slovakia to leave NATO. Twenty-seven percent don’t.
An evening celebrating the 20th anniversary of Slovakia's accession to NATO in Bratislava on March 27, 2024. (Source: TASR - Pavol Zachar)Underestimated factor
“In my opinion, the often overestimated factor is the history of the Slovak fight for national rights, when especially in the 19th century, there was a belief that Russia, as the strongest Slavic nation, would save and unite the non-free Slavic nations in Europe,” said Klobucký.
On the other hand, he adds that the success of communism in Slovakia is often underestimated in this regard. The expert draws attention to the transformation of rural Slovakia into an industrialised country under communism, and an increase in the living standards in those decades.
“This is also why the sentiment for the former regime in Slovakia is higher than in neighbouring countries, and this fact can also affect geopolitical orientations,” he notes.
Slovakia joined NATO 20 years ago - on March 29, 2004. However, it was only last year that Slovakia joined a minority of the member states in fulfilling the commitment of spending 2 percent of its GDP on defence.
On Friday, the Presidential Office will put up the NATO flag outside the palace to mark the anniversary.
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