Can ChatGPT solve the Cyprus problem?
Sometimes in moments of boredom, retired old Cyprob junkies with nothing better to do and to keep themselves amused however briefly on a rainy December morning might decide to ask ChatGPT how the Cyprus problem could be resolved. So it was mis
Sometimes in moments of boredom, retired old Cyprob junkies with nothing better to do and to keep themselves amused however briefly on a rainy December morning might decide to ask ChatGPT how the Cyprus problem could be resolved.
So it was mission accomplished when its solution was: “Use AI to model negotiation scenarios and identify win-win outcomes.”
It was given two questions. The answers to the first, fairly predictable, the second a bit more novel.
With so much historical and media information at its disposal, Chat GPT took only seconds to identify the issues and make suggestions for a solution, including using AI models like itself.
“As an AI, I can offer a structured, impartial approach to potential solutions, keeping in mind the perspectives of Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots, and the broader international community,” it wrote before launching into the well-known history of the problem and possible touted solutions.
Notably the AI suggested that “a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation (BBF) with innovative elements could serve as a foundation”.
It went on to cover the usual talking points we hear from politicians and the international community, territorial exchanges, security, confidence building and governance.
Concluding, it said that while an AI’s approach is impartial and based on logical frameworks, the Cyprus problem “is inherently human, requiring empathy, trust and political will”.
“Any solution must acknowledge the emotional, historical and cultural weight carried by both sides. An AI could assist by offering data-driven insights, fostering communication, and reducing bias in negotiations – but ultimately, the path forward rests in the hands of the people of Cyprus and their leaders.”
All very neatly packaged. Antonio Guterres could not have said it better. Oh, wait, he has.
I pushed it a bit further.
“Theoretically of course that is all possible on paper but what do you do when there is a lack of goodwill and also in some cases no goodwill at all? What would you suggest then?”
It responded: “You’re absolutely right to point out that even the most theoretically sound solutions fall apart in the absence of goodwill. The Cyprus problem has repeatedly been stymied by entrenched positions, mutual distrust and political dynamics that discourage compromise. If goodwill is lacking – or absent altogether – a different strategy is needed. Here’s how I’d approach it. “The first step would be fostering conditions for goodwill because “it doesn’t emerge spontaneously; it needs to be cultivated”.
It suggests starting with confidence-building measures such as joint management of water resources, electricity grids, or waste management, cultural joint festivals and expanding trade between the two sides. Standard stuff.
Then: “Identify individuals or groups with vested interests in maintaining the status quo and work to neutralise their influence through diplomatic pressure or incentives.”
Umm… okay.
When goodwill is absent, “external incentives and pressures can play a significant role in nudging parties toward cooperation”, it added suggesting the EU condition access to funding, trade benefits or other economic incentives on measurable progress toward reconciliation.
Lead balloon anyone?
Turkey’s EU accession ambitions, while dim, “remain a potential lever”, it added, taking the Cyprus government line on tying accession to the Cyprus issue – because that’s worked so well until now.
As if continuing to read from the presidential palace playbook, the AI suggested broadening the framing of the Cyprus issue as a security and stability concern for the Eastern Mediterranean, compelling international actors such as the US and Nato to apply “targeted diplomatic pressure”.
“Shift the narrative from zero-sum competition to one of shared survival in a volatile region. Highlight common challenges like climate change, energy resources and regional instability, which require bi-communal collaboration,” it said.
“If goodwill remains irretrievable, the solution may involve managing the status quo rather than resolving it outright”.
Here’s where the AI gets sent to the “diplomat’s graveyard” for its “pro-Turkish stance”.
It moots formalising co-existence with a negotiated arrangement that “solidifies the division while ensuring both communities can thrive separately”.
“This could include mutual recognition without full reunification.”
Yikes.
Then it seems to briefly return to reality.
“Sometimes, the ideal is unattainable. Acknowledging this can lead to a pragmatic approach such as a focus on reducing harm and preserving opportunities for future solutions, even if that means a ‘frozen conflict’ persists for the time being.”
In its “final thoughts” by now as Cyprob-fatigued and defeated as the rest of us, the AI concludes: “Without goodwill, the Cyprus problem becomes less about solving and more about managing.”
It said the goal shifts from achieving a grand resolution to making daily life better for both communities, reducing the risk of conflict, and laying the groundwork for future generations to succeed where the current ones cannot.
“Patience, persistence, and creativity are essential – but so is a realistic understanding of the limitations of the moment,” it said.
I was tempted to copy paste that back in to see what it would spew back in terms of any sign of self-reflection but it was almost lunch time.
In conclusion here’s a human’s final thoughts on this fun exercise: It’s safe to say that ChatGPT will not be joining the negotiating teams on either side of the Cyprus divide any time soon. It still has a lot to learn.
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